Predicting the Weather by the Moon

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The forecasting of the weather within the next six hours is often referred to as nowcasting. A human given the latest radar, satellite and observational data will be able to make a better analysis of the small scale features present and so will be able to make a more accurate forecast for the following few hours. In the past, the human forecaster was responsible for generating the entire weather forecast based upon available observations.

Humans can use knowledge of local effects that may be too small in size to be resolved by the model to add information to the forecast. While increasing accuracy of forecast models implies that humans may no longer be needed in the forecast process at some point in the future, there is currently still a need for human intervention.

The analog technique is a complex way of making a forecast, requiring the forecaster to remember a previous weather event that is expected to be mimicked by an upcoming event.

Quick Tip: Weather Prediction Sayings

What makes it a difficult technique to use is that there is rarely a perfect analog for an event in the future. It remains a useful method of observing rainfall over data voids such as oceans, [74] as well as the forecasting of precipitation amounts and distribution in the future. A similar technique is used in medium range forecasting, which is known as teleconnections, when systems in other locations are used to help pin down the location of another system within the surrounding regime. Most end users of forecasts are members of the general public. Thunderstorms can create strong winds and dangerous lightning strikes that can lead to deaths, power outages, [77] and widespread hail damage.

Heavy snow or rain can bring transportation and commerce to a stand-still, [78] as well as cause flooding in low-lying areas. Knowledge of what the end user needs from a weather forecast must be taken into account to present the information in a useful and understandable way. In addition, some cities had weather beacons. Increasingly, the internet is being used due to the vast amount of specific information that can be found. A major part of modern weather forecasting is the severe weather alerts and advisories that the national weather services issue in the case that severe or hazardous weather is expected.

This is done to protect life and property. Other forms of these advisories include winter weather, high wind, flood , tropical cyclone , and fog. There are a number of sectors with their own specific needs for weather forecasts and specialist services are provided to these users. Because the aviation industry is especially sensitive to the weather, accurate weather forecasting is essential. Fog or exceptionally low ceilings can prevent many aircraft from landing and taking off. This reduces the distance required for takeoff, and eliminates potential crosswinds.

Commercial and recreational use of waterways can be limited significantly by wind direction and speed, wave periodicity and heights, tides, and precipitation. These factors can each influence the safety of marine transit. Consequently, a variety of codes have been established to efficiently transmit detailed marine weather forecasts to vessel pilots via radio, for example the MAFOR marine forecast. Farmers rely on weather forecasts to decide what work to do on any particular day.

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For example, drying hay is only feasible in dry weather. Prolonged periods of dryness can ruin cotton , wheat , [96] and corn crops. While corn crops can be ruined by drought, their dried remains can be used as a cattle feed substitute in the form of silage.

Moon predict weather lore | The Old Farmer's Almanac

For example, peach trees in full bloom can have their potential peach crop decimated by a spring freeze. Weather forecasting of wind, precipitations and humidity is essential for preventing and controlling wildfires. Different indices, like the Forest fire weather index and the Haines Index , have been developed to predict the areas more at risk to experience fire from natural or human causes.

Conditions for the development of harmful insects can be predicted by forecasting the evolution of weather, too. Electricity and gas companies rely on weather forecasts to anticipate demand, which can be strongly affected by the weather. They use the quantity termed the degree day to determine how strong of a use there will be for heating heating degree day or cooling cooling degree day. Cooler temperatures force heating degree days one per degree Fahrenheit , while warmer temperatures force cooling degree days. Increasingly, private companies pay for weather forecasts tailored to their needs so that they can increase their profits or avoid large losses.

Weather forecasts can be used to invest in the commodity market, such as futures in oranges, corn, soybeans, and oil. The UK Royal Navy , working with the UK Met Office , has its own specialist branch of weather observers and forecasters, as part of the Hydrographic and Meteorological HM specialisation, who monitor and forecast operational conditions across the globe, to provide accurate and timely weather and oceanographic information to submarines, ships and Fleet Air Arm aircraft.

A mobile unit in the RAF , working with the UK Met Office , forecasts the weather for regions in which British, allied servicemen and women are deployed.

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A group based at Camp Bastion provides forecasts for the British armed forces in Afghanistan. Similar to the private sector, military weather forecasters present weather conditions to the war fighter community. Military weather forecasters provide pre-flight and in-flight weather briefs to pilots and provide real time resource protection services for military installations.

Naval forecasters cover the waters and ship weather forecasts. The United States Navy provides a special service to both themselves and the rest of the federal government by issuing forecasts for tropical cyclones across the Pacific and Indian Oceans through their Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Air Force forecasters cover air operations in both wartime and peacetime operations and provide Army support; [] United States Coast Guard marine science technicians provide ship forecasts for ice breakers and other various operations within their realm; [] and Marine forecasters provide support for ground- and air-based United States Marine Corps operations. These are academic or governmental meteorology organizations. Most provide at least a limited forecast for their area of interest on their website. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

For other uses, see Weatherman disambiguation. Calendar seasons.

Winter Spring Summer Autumn. Tropical seasons. Dry season Harmattan Wet season. Meteorology Climate change Tornado terms Tropical cyclone terms. Main article: History of numerical weather prediction. Main article: Numerical weather prediction. Main article: Nowcasting meteorology.

An example of a two-day weather forecast in the visual style that an American newspaper might use.


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Temperatures are given in Fahrenheit. See also: Terminal Aerodrome Forecast. See also: Marine weather forecasting. Main article: Degree day. Observations upon the Marine Barometer Adam; Brubaker, Kaye L. February 1, Journal of Hydrometeorology. Bibcode : JHyMe.. July Archived from the original on August 29, Retrieved December 30, Retrieved Retrieved March 1, Bible Gateway. Retrieved December 1, Arabic Sciences and Philosophy. Encyclopedia of the History of Arabic Science. Archived from the original on January 6, Retrieved May 25, Smithsonian Institution.

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Archived from the original on June 26, Retrieved June 29, Some years ago, on the night before an impending big snowstorm, the phone started to ring incessantly at the News 12 Weather Center in Westchester, NY, where I work. But the inquiries being posed that night were not viewers asking about the impending big snow, but rather about something that was up in the sky at that hour. I threw on my winter coat and stepped outside to take a look.

A full moon was shining brightly, and right next to the moon was a very bright, silvery star which as it turned out, was the planet Jupiter. But that's also not what all the phone calls were all about. Rather, people were asking about a large and unusually bright ring, or halo that surrounded the moon. Still another expressed the opinion that the halo might be weather-related, adding: "I guess the fact that it's so bright means a lot of snow is coming, right? It is indeed amazing how a relatively common sight like a lunar halo can sometimes stop people in their tracks and look up.

And a person who watches the sky carefully enough may sometimes notice a connection between the sun, moon and impending weather. Here are a few examples, each accompanied by a little folklore.

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Let's start with halos. Halos are produced when light from the sun or the moon strikes ice crystals suspended high in the atmosphere at altitudes above 25, feet 7, meters. Such ice crystals are present within a rather thin, uniform veil of cirrostratus cloudiness. The practical value of halos for weather forecasting follows from the fact that cobwebby cirrostratus clouds usually precede a warm front and its accompanying precipitation. Actually, a halo in winter doesn't have absolute significance; but during warmer months, it usually foretells the coming of a thickening cirroform ceiling of warm air overhead; in most cases, a long-duration period of drizzly rain should eventually arrive in about 12 to 18 hours.

But your chances of accurately predicting precipitation depend chiefly on your location; the closer you are to normal storm tracks, the more likely a halo predicts rain. Precipitation tends to develop more quickly with an associated halo that appears in winter as opposed to summer because weather systems tend to move with a greater speed across the country then. The precise size of the halo is due to the shape of the ice crystal.

Light enters one side of the crystal and is refracted bent because light travels more slowly through ice than through air. This light leaves the crystal through another side and is refracted again. This light is usually bent at an angle of 22 degrees, creating the most commonly observed halo. Halos seldom have much color; they are commonly soft white circlets in the sky.

And still others travel on commercial airliners or shipping vessels, collecting weather data as passengers and goods are moved from point A to point B. Finally, weather satellites and balloons provide information from the upper regions of the atmosphere. Satellites photograph Earth's weather from their orbit in space, while balloons monitor upper-air data over a particular location. Collectively, all of these sensors and gauges produce more than 1 million weather-related observations every day.

A normal computer -- the kind you buy at your local electronics store -- would choke on all of this data. Luckily, meteorologists can rely on supercomputers, crazy-fast machines that perform millions of calculations per second. There, weather observations stream into a supercomputer's brain, which uses complex mathematical models to predict how, based on the incoming data, weather conditions might change over time.


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The computer's output form the basis of almost every forecast broadcast on radio and television channels across America.

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